What are the odds Jesus is the Son of God?

A Different Kind of Logic

A very different kind of logic led two high-level U.S. government operatives to conclude that Jesus of Nazareth is, in fact, the Son of God, the Messiah. Their logic was not based on the circumstances related to the fulfillment of prophecies or the Gospel accounts of miracles and teachings by Jesus of love and forgiveness. Instead, they looked at it completely differently and asked themselves – what are the odds it could all be a lie?

Years ago in an appearance on CNBC, the distinguished moderator of NBC’s Meet the Press, the late Tim Russert, interviewed the late William F. Buckley. As a recognized intellectual, his biography is extremely impressive.

Buckley was a World War II veteran, served as a CIA station chief, founded the National Review magazine serving as its Editor at Large; an Emmy winning TV show host of Firing Line; awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom; a syndicated newspaper columnist; and authored of more than 40 books including Nearer, My God: An Autobiography of Faith.^[1]

Russert asked Buckley, “Can you prove there is a God?” Buckley answered, “I can’t prove that Julius Caesar was assassinated nor can I prove that George Washington was a patriot.” He went on to explain the logic of his belief that Jesus is the Son of God was based on the behavior of his 11 Disciples.^[2]

The former spy chief had led a secretive U.S. government agency whose counterintelligence agents placed their lives on the line every day to protect U.S. secrets around the globe. He asked himself what are the odds that the Disciples of Jesus would be willing to die horrible deaths in defense of what they had witnessed if it were not true? It seemed perfectly logical from Buckley’s perspective that these men would not willingly die to protect a lie about Jesus.

President Nixon’s Special Council included the late Charles Colson, known as the “White House hatchet man,” who was convicted and imprisoned for his role in Watergate.^[3] Colson’s life-changing logic came later in life saying:

“What would inspire men to suffer and die for a belief? Only one thing—the absolute certainty that their belief was true. Who would die to protect a lie or a hoax, especially if he knew it to be a lie?”^[4]

As part of the Watergate conspiracy involving 12 of the most powerful men in the world, it took only 2 weeks for one of them to break and expose their cover up. From Colson’s unique perspective, the Disciples of Jesus went to their deaths never denying their proclamations about the Resurrection of Jesus. His conclusion was based on the logic that the Disciples would never have stood steadfastly in their belief through persecution, imprisonment, torture and death if what they experienced with Jesus was not true.

Unshakably, the Disciples’ personal involvement during a 3-year stint made them totally and completely committed to their belief that Jesus is the Son of God. They experienced and witnessed it; they were moved and torn by it; they shared and preached it, some even wrote about it. Ultimately all but one died tragic deaths, the one exception (John) was imprisoned – all for proclaiming to the very end that Jesus is the Son of God.

Unique life experiences of Buckley and Colson, who worked with professional spies and deceivers at the highest levels of the U.S. government, led them to the same independent logical conclusion. These two men concluded that by the behavior of the Disciples, who were willing to die for what they believed, was a profound truth that Jesus is the Messiah, the Son of God.

Is their logic flawed or does it make sense?

Updated May 9, 2024.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License .

REFERENCES:

[1] “William F. Buckley Jr.” Biograpny.com. 2017. <http://www.biography.com/people/william-f-buckley-jr-9230494#synopsis>. “William F. Buckley Jr..” NationalReview.com. nd. <http://www.nationalreview.com/author/william-f-buckley-jr>
[2] William F. Buckley. “Is there a God?” Talk show/Interview. CNBC. Host: Tim Russert. Aired 23 Nov. 1997.
[3] Colson, Charles. “How God Turned Around Nixon’s Hatchet Man.” The Veritas Forum. Columbia University. 23 April 2012. <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_OqvFJhDRY>
[4] Colson, Chuck. “Secrets, Lies, and the Resurrection.” Break Point. 13 April 2006. <http://www.breakpoint.org/commentaries/5545-secrets-lies-and-the-resurrection>.

Beliefs About Jesus, the Bible, Heaven & Hell

Hundreds of millions of people believe Jesus is the Son of God; then again, hundreds of millions do not. Sadly, many people are unsure about what they believe nor do they take the time to look into it.

A Gallup poll found that 84% of respondents in the United States have a belief that Jesus is the Son of God.^[1] What is shocking is that most of those who believe Jesus to be the Son of God, don’t completely buy into the truth of the very source that proclaims it – the Bible!

A Baylor University study of those who considered themselves to be either mainstream Protestants or Catholics, presumably a pool of Christian believers, found that an astoundingly less than 12% believe the Bible to be literally true. Still somehow these respondents still believe that Jesus is the Son of God.^[2]

If the Bible is the only source that claims Jesus to be the Son of God, but these respondents do not wholly believe its truths, with what certainty is this conclusion drawn? A lot of uncertainty is evident.

From the opposite side of the spectrum, the same uncertainty exists. Pollster George Barna once found that half of all people claiming to be Atheists or Agnostics believe that “every person has a soul; that heaven and hell exist; and that there is life after death.”^[3]

Of those who said that they believe in a Heaven and Hell, a scant 14% said that it is only a symbolic place. A conundrum for the remaining 86% of Atheists and Agnostics: how is it possible to believe in Heaven and Hell, but not believe that there is a God who determines where a soul will spend eternity in either place – if it is not God, who or what makes this determination?

Consistently with the theme of uncertainty, the Baylor study found that 99% of those with no religious affiliation do not believe the Bible to be literal although 17% believe the Bible to be more than just legendary tales. It poses yet another mystery of how people do not completely buy into the Bible, but still believe it to hold certain truths.

Neither believers nor detractors have an absolute single piece of evidence that proves that Jesus is or is not the Son of God. Still, there can be no in-between… he either is or he was not. If Jesus was the Son of God 2000 years ago, he still is now.

Much goes into the final decision made by a judge or jury after weighing all the many pieces of evidence. In a circumstantial case, one without any direct evidence or proof, the jury must use logic to link a series of indirect evidence in order to draw a single conclusion. Among factors they consider is if there is an alternative explanation, the probability it was someone else, just a coincidence, etc.

Human nature is to casually make decisions without having all or even none of the facts. People quickly assess which traffic route is faster without checking a traffic report; take a chance on speeding with no idea of radar locations; selecting a product based on habit or advertising; ordering a menu item that looks most appealing while having not tasted it; watching a movie based on the trailer, but not checking reviews; making outdoor plans without looking at a weather forecast; etc.

Evaluating the odds of whether or not Jesus is the Son of God for most people is a casual process, too. It is often a decision made based only on tradition, assumptions, experiences, or bits and pieces of things seen or heard – a conclusion drawn without at least making a modest effort to look into it in more detail.

For many people, taking the risk is not worth the effort to avert the potential outcome. Eternity at the end of a person’s life is a risk of finality, the ultimate risk, but still most people don’t take the time to weigh the information or even make a decision at all.

Professor Peter W. Stoner, Chairman of the Departments of Mathematics and Astronomy and later Professor Emeritus at Pasadena City College during the 1950s published a book entitled Science Speaks.^[4] The professor calculated the probability of only 8 out of the some 48 Messiah prophecies covering predictions from his birth to his death that could be fulfilled by any one person. Conservatively, the result was 1 chance in 10¹⁷(1 in 100,000,000,000,000,000).

By comparison, the uniqueness odds of a DNA code matching to a single individual is 1 in 10¹⁵even though there are not that many humans who have ever lived on this planet throughout the ages.^[5] In-spite-of the incredible improbability that one person could ever fulfill even a fourth of all the messianic prophecies attributed to the circumstances of the life and death of Jesus of Nazareth, these astounding odds alone will sway very few people to conclude that Jesus is the Messiah, the Son of God.

Doctrine of Chances, a U.S. Federal legal concept, says the probability that recurrence of events with the same or similar circumstances pointing to a specific individual is not merely an accident. The greater the number of similar occurrences pointing to that central figure, the stronger the probability that they occurred by design, not by chance.

What is the improbability of mere chance that the confluence of events and circumstances at a single point in history surrounding the life of Jesus of Nazareth coincided with the Hebrew legacy of the many messianic prophecies, events, and circumstances over the previous 2000 years? Was it all nothing more than a big coincidence…or was it by divine design?

Updated September 1, 2023.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

REFERENCES:

[1] Gallup, George H. Jr. “Who Is Jesus?” Gallup. 2002. <http://www.gallup.com/poll/7471/who-jesus.aspx> >
[2] American Piety in the 21st Century: New Insights to the Depth and Complexity of Religion in the US. Baylor University. 2006. “Table 2: Religious Beliefs and Practices by Religious Tradition.” p 14. <http://www.baylor.edu/content/services/document.php/33304.pdf>
[3] “Most in U.S. believe they are heaven-bound, study says.” Austin American Statesman. 2003. Newspaper edition.
[4] Stoner, Peter W. and Newman, Robert C. Science Speaks. Chicago: Moody Bible Institute. 1958. Online Edition 2005. Chapter 3, #8. <http://sciencespeaks.dstoner.net/>
[5] Trautman, Dave, “Probabilities Associated with DNA Profiling.” The Citadel Mathematics and Computer Science publication website. <http://www.mathcs.citadel.edu/trautmand/stuff/dnapapers/little.htm>. “DNA Fingerprint.” World of Forensic Science. 2005. Encyclopedia.com. <http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3448300188.html>